by: Sarah Wroblewski Updated: Mar 19, 2016 - 5:39 PM

BOSTON —

TRACKING SPRING SNOW

While there have been shifts in the storm track the last 24 hours, the potential of snow continues to exist for parts of the state Sunday night into Monday. This will not be a record breaking storm, but it will still impact the area as folks head back to work and school Monday morning. There will likely be some impacts to the Monday  morning commute.  The latest information Saturday afternoon brings the potential of heavy, wet snow to eastern MA, especially for southeast MA and Cape Cod. 

Afternoon models coming in with a bold snow potential for some. Going through data now, updates on #Fox25 at 6 pic.twitter.com/eBdMK1MvE7

— Sarah Wroblewski (@sarahwroblewski) March 19, 2016

A WINTER STORM WATCH will be in effect from Boston to the south coast, the Cape and Islands 5 PM SUNDAY through 8 AM MONDAY ( 11 AM for Nantucket).  While there are still some concerns about the exact track of this system, even though we are roughly 24 hours out from the start, I urge you to check the forecast often as the timeline and impacts may shift slightly as new information arrives throughout the day.

 

SNOW:  Areas under the winter storm watch are still being monitored for the potential of 6 inches of snow.  The heavy, wet snow potential still exists mainly south of Boston along the I95 corridor and to the east depending on where a zone of convergent winds sets up. Still uncertain if the heaviest snow will reach the Islands or just offshore. We’ll have to watch for any banding to set up, because right now I would not be surprised if there were a few spots that reached over 6”, mainly in southeast MA. There may be a sharp cutoff in precipitation the further north and west of Boston you travel depending on the exact track of low pressure passing to our south. There is the potential of light snow, but generally 1-3” is possible north and west of the city away from the coast and into southern New Hampshire. If the track changes, we may be adjusting these numbers.

 

RAIN:  Cold, dry air is spilling into Southern New England right now, and cold Canadian high pressure will continue to feed us enough cold air to keep us under snow.  The only places where rain could briefly mix in would be the Outer Cape, Nantucket, and possibly the Vineyard before changing over to all snow.

 

TIMING:  Looks like precipitation will push back a bit. Expect a mostly dry Sunday. Precipitation will begin to develop in the form of light snow or rain on the Islands after sunset Sunday.  Right now the bulk of the snow doesn’t make it northward until midnight or shortly thereafter. The heaviest snow will fall from 1 AM through 11 AM.   The morning drive on Monday stands to be heavily impacted as untreated surfaces will be slick thanks to the cold air that has been in place. Visibility will be low at times.    Snow could persist until midday Monday, then taper off west to east in the early afternoon.

 

WIND:  There is the potential of 30 to 40 mph wind gusts from Sunday evening through Monday morning. Combine gusty conditions along with heavy wet snow, and we could see  tree damage and isolated power outages.  Cape Cod and the Islands will have the greatest risk for heavy snow combined with strong wind gusts.

 

COASTAL FLOODING:  Not currently a concern due to low astronomical tides, but should the storm strengthen more than expected we’ll have to watch for minor flooding and erosion along the east-facing beaches with the Sunday night-Monday midday high tides.